Global economic growth is forecast to ease to a weaker-than-expected 2.6% in 2019 before inching up to 2.7% in 2020. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to stabilize next year as some countries move past periods of financial strain, but economic momentum remains weak.
Emerging and developing economy growth is constrained by sluggish investment, and risks are tilted to the downside. These risks include rising trade barriers, renewed financial stress, and sharper-than-expected slowdowns in several major economies, the World Bank says in its June 2019 Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment. Structural problems that misallocate or discourage investment also weigh on the outlook.
Regional growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2020, assuming that investor sentiment toward some of the large economies of the region improves, that oil production will recover in large exporters, and that robust growth in non-resource-intensive economies will be underpinned by continued strong agricultural production and sustained public investment. While per capita GDP is expected to rise in the region, it will nevertheless be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. In 2020, growth in South Africa is anticipated to rise to 1.5%; growth in Angola is anticipated to pick up to 2.9%; and growth in Nigeria is anticipated to edge up to 2.2% in 2020.
Source: World Bank